India appears to have been caught in the wrong foot over developments in Bangladesh, where Sheikh Hasina, one of New Delhi’s closest friends in the region, has been forced to resign and flee the country. New Delhi seems to have completely misread the situation, possibly trusting the former Prime Minister to put down the students revolt with her usual hardline method. After all she had broken the back of the Jamaat and had made the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party almost irrelevant. She jailed most of their leaders including the ageing and sick former prime minister Khaleda Zia. Having ruled without a credible opposition for decades, Hasina and her party had become arrogant and would tolerate no criticism. She was a democratically elected leader all right, but her critics have often accused her of not conducting free and fair elections. The BNP had boycotted the elections saying that polls without an interim set-up in place could never be free and fair.

As a close and friendly neighbour New Delhi would have been following all that was happening in Bangladesh over the last few weeks. Did no one get a hint of how serious the situation was. Could India not have warned her to take the student protests seriously and diffuse the crisis? Perhaps that advice was given and not taken or perhaps as the MEA said at the start of the crisis that this was an internal matter for the government and India had no comments. Nobel laureate and Grameen Bank founder Muhammad Yunus, has expressed his disappointment at New Delhi’s attitude. Hasina had gone after Yunus and her government registered a number of cases against him primarily because he had once been put up by the Bangladesh army to form a new political party. That move fizzled off. But Sheikh Hasina never forgot the challenge to her.

Though in politics one can never tell, but by all indication Sheikh Hasina is now out for good. Her son had announced that she will not return to politics. Now with her out of the scene New Delhi will have no friends in the establishment. China on the other hand has always had excellent ties with both the Awami League and the BNP. In fact both India and China backed Sheikh Hasina during the elections, though the US and the Western democracies called out the government for unfair election practices. The US was particularly vocal in support of a caretaker government for conducting credible national elections.

India has always had testy ties with the BNP as well as the Jamaat the Islamic party that had opposed Bangladesh independence and sided with the Pakistan army. Both the BNP as well as the Jamaat will now be back at the centre of the nation’s politics. India believes that with Awami League now out, Bangladesh will once again become a hot-bed of anti-India groups as it was during the BNP rule. The ISI is also expected to spread its wings in the country. None of this is good news for New Delhi. The problem with India was that it placed all its eggs in the Sheikh Hasina basket and did not look past her to prepare for a time she was out of the scene.

Instability in Bangladesh with which India shares over 4000-km long border is a major headache for New Delhi. India has already tightened security in the border along Bangladesh, fearing an influx from there, in case of instability and civil strife in the country. Curfew has been imposed along the international border with Bangladesh from 6 pm to 6 am from this evening.

The opposition BNP had often labelled Sheikh Hasina as an ``Indian stooge’’ who followed Delhi’s diktats. India’s support for her has led to anti-India sentiments among protestors and those opposed to the Awami League.

The army will be effectively in control in Dhaka. The Bangladesh army is also not inclined towards India, and had in the past had excellent ties with both China and Pakistan. The army chief had said there would be an interim government in place. When that will happen and how long that will last is an open question. Moreover an interim government formed by the opposition will be hostile to India.

Though the army has promised an interim government, the situation in Bangladesh continues to be fluid. First the students and sundry mobs roaming the streets of cities and towns in Bangladesh need to return home. There is chaos in the streets with protestors defacing the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, pouring into the former prime minister’s residence and one of them even lolling on her bed, in a replay of what happened two years back in Sri Lanka when anti-Rajapaksa protestors desecrated the home of the president.

Defacing the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman indicates that lumpen elements from the Jamaat may have joined the students as it is unlikely that student activists would do such acts of vandalism. The Jamaat had always been opposed to Mujibur Rahman and the Awami League.

Sheikh Hasina is at the moment stuck in the Hindon air force base, where she had met with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. Reportedly she is asking for asylum in the UK, where her sister is based. Her niece Tulip Siddiq is the economic secretary to the treasury and city minister in the Labour government of Keir Starmer. As of now It is uncertain whether Hasina has got the green signal to seek refuge in the UK. Till then she will remain in India.

The challenge ahead for Bangladesh is to ensure that revenge killings of Awami League members does not occur. But this has already started in some areas. According to reports in the Dhaka Tribune, at least eight people were burnt to death and 84 others wounded on Monday, when an unidentified group set fire to a hotel of a Awami League member in Jessore.

India will continue to watch the situation as it unfolds in the neighbouring country. India and China are competing for space in Bangladesh as in other South Asian nations. This round of the India-China match up certainly goes to China as India finds itself in a tough spot in that country.