Hope And Disappointment In The Air As Kashmir Heads To The Polls

Historically, voter turnout in the Kashmir valley in the parliamentary elections has been abysmally low while the participation goes up in the assembly elections. Partly, this is because the assembly elections are seen as a process to address local governance and administrative issues. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, voter turnout in the Baramulla, Srinagar, and Anantnag constituencies stood at 34 per cent, 14 per cent, and 13.63 per cent, respectively.  However, this time, voters seem to be in the mood to participate in the parliamentary polls.

Gowhar Geelani, a Kashmir-based journalist and author of Kashmir: Rage and Reason told Outlook, “There are three key reasons for this shift. Firstly, the absence of political activity and enforced silence in Kashmir since August 5, 2019. Secondly, many perceive that through elections, the BJP's 'Naya Kashmir' narrative can be punctured. And thirdly, voters want to telegraph a message that the silence in Kashmir since 2019 is not consent for the changes made then in the form of invalidation of the region's semi-autonomous status and special standing.”

In Kashmir, a majority of people feel their elected leaders have failed them. From the streets of Srinagar to the villages of the valley, the sentiment is palpable. The discontent seems widespread, shared by three main groups: those who have always boycotted elections, those who have regularly voted, and a new faction who say they will vote to preserve ‘‘Kashmiri identity’’. 

Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti said during a roadshow on the outskirts of Rajouri, “The current election is not meant for power or roads. It is about the decision taken in 2019, which we believe was wrong. Our identity, our land, our jobs, our land—they want to snatch away everything from us.”

Locals fear that the central government's move to allow outsiders to settle permanently in the region after the abrogation of article 370 will alter the Muslim-majority state's demographics. The valley is home to over 70 lakh people, with Muslims making up 97 per cent of the population, according to the 2011 census.

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Unpredictable Voters

Outside a grocery shop in North Kashmir, a group of men gathered to discuss various issues ahead of the elections. Commuters joined in. In Kashmir, everyone tends to be a political analyst, and such scenes are commonplace.

“The BJP has brought some welcome changes,” says Mohiddin, 56. “Government officials have become accountable. Infrastructure projects, roads and railways are progressing rapidly.” He also mentioned that local politicians often favour their own folks and supporters. Many in the crowd nodded in agreement.

But Mohiddin still does not want BJP’s allies to win. “The BJP wants to change the demographic character of the Muslim-majority region by allowing non-Kashmiris to buy land there,” he says. He is determined to vote since votes counts, boycotts don't. He plans to vote for a local party, though he declined to specify which one. 

A younger man with a beard interrupted him, saying, "Whichever party wins, it wins for itself, not for us. They all supported the BJP when it suited them for the sake of power, and now they're speaking against the BJP to get our votes. They're everywhere today, but they'll vanish once the polls are over." 

His comment resonated with the crowd, and it is worth noting that neither he nor those around him knew the name of their current Member of Parliament from Baramulla constituency. 

Despite their disappointment, some of them said they might still vote, hoping that maybe, some change might finally happen. Many are not sure who to vote for.

The BJP Factor Divides the Local Parties

In the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, the five local parties in Kashmir are accusing each other of being secret allies of the BJP, which has not fielded any candidate in the valley. The entire messaging of local parties is focused on accusing each other of having ties with the BJP, in a bid to discredit their rivals. The BJP, however, seems unaffected by this.

Notably, all of the local parties have aligned with the BJP in the past or are expected to form alliances. The National Conference's Omar Abdullah was a minister in the Vajpayee government in 1999, while the People's Democratic Party surprisingly allied with the BJP in 2014. Sajad Lone’s relations with the BJP are said to go back to 2014 when he was considered their technical ally in the Mufti government.

Altaf Bukhari and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s connections with the party at the Centre are “too obvious to hide”, as political analyst Zafar Choudary argues in his article titled ‘The ‘‘B’’Teams, BJP’s Secret Kashmir Allies and the History of Alliances.”

Anti-BJP Sentiment Not Unanimous

While anti-BJP sentiment is widespread, it's not a unanimous stance. In the Baramulla constituency, Siraj Ahmed, 48, plans to vote for People Conference’s Sajad Gani Lone. “He's our neighbour, and it'll be easier to reach out to him," Ahmed explains. 

The personalised approach to voting is common in Kashmir, driven by family loyalties, kinship ties, and, in some cases, pressure from political parties. In impoverished rural areas, voters may feel coerced into participating due to client-patron relationships with political parties.

As for those who are boycotting the elections, they see little distinction between the BJP and local parties, believing the Kashmir issue requires a more fundamental resolution, one that is not achievable at the ballot. One boycotter, who wishes to remain anonymous says, “These local politicians don’t represent Kashmir in New Delhi, but New Delhi in Kashmir.”