It's A Regime Change

Therein lies the irony. As Indians spontaneously joined worldwide celebrations at Obama’s historic victory, perhaps few in the establishment shared the euphoria. Their sentiments were understandable: voted out of power was the Republican party to which Bush belonged. Often reviled as America’s worst president, Bush was New Delhi’s darling, courted irrespective of the popular mood. Remember the howl of protests when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Bush that the people of India loved him?

It’s indeed difficult for another president to match what Bush did for India. He abolished the nuclear apartheid that India had suffered for decades, enhancing its profile. He often held it up as a role model for the developing world. And it was he who, for most, had effaced the "hyphen" between India and Pakistan. His empathy for India and his personal equation with Manmohan saw the ‘Strategic Partnership’ flourish. Says a close aide of the PM, "Bush’s personal commitment brought that additionality into the bilateral relations that is so vital, yet so difficult to replicate."

New Delhi’s scepticism about Obama stems from its past experience of dealing with Democratic presidents, many of whom had pursued agendas militating against India. Considering that Democrats now dominate both houses in Congress, there’s no counter, should Obama push policies against India’s interests. But the PM’s special envoy, Shyam Saran, cites Obama’s letter and says, "In it he had expressed support for the nuclear agreement and his strong commitment to take forward the Indo-US strategic partnership."

Perhaps this is why quiet optimism has now replaced scepticism. For one, the PM’s congratulatory note to Obama was effusive, dubbing his victory an inspiration for people worldwide. Serious attempts are now underfoot to have Obama and Manmohan meet when the latter visits Washington for the November 15 G-20 conference.

New Delhi also feels that vibrant Indo-US relations have bipartisan support in Washington. "It is unfair to give all the credit for the nuclear deal to Bush and the Republicans. If it wasn’t supported by the Democrats in big numbers, it would not have passed the US Congress," says former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. Many others accept that building strong strategic ties with India is no longer a Republican monopoly. "Both the Democrats and Republicans want to have good relations with India and strengthen the strategic partnership," says Lalit Mansingh, a former foreign secretary who was also India’s ambassador in Washington. He argues that India’s stock has risen significantly in the past decade, and Obama won’t dilute ties with New Delhi. In other words, New Delhi matters to Washington as much as India needs the US.

The rise of an unpredictable China may also prompt the Americans to hedge their bet for maintaining balance of power in Asia and consequently provide space to India. Since both India and the US are averse to a single power dominating the region, relations between the two will grow.

For most Indian officials, Obama was an unknown quantity. His views began to be taken seriously only after he became the clear choice of the Democrats in the primaries. His views on international issues crucial to India have been a source of both alarm and enthusiasm. For instance, while India agrees with him that the US should shift focus from Iraq to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border for fighting global terror, his remarks suggesting a more proactive role on Kashmir are alarming. In the last few years, Pakistan has tried to convince the US that it can crack down on terrorists without a blowback only if India makes concessions in Kashmir.

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New Delhi, obviously, is opposed to such linkages. As Shyam Saran told Outlook, "Accepting the argument that the war on terror in Afghanistan can work only if certain concessions are made in Kashmir amounts to making elements in Pakistan believe that terror as a foreign policy tool can work. The war against terrorism cannot be segmented. The terrorist groups operating on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and across the LOC in J&K are part and parcel of the same network. The US must understand this."

Occasionally, Washington has attempted to raise the Kashmir issue to accommodate Pakistan, only to be rejected. "It was raised even by the Bush administration," says a senior Indian diplomat. In other words, not every statement emanating from Washington should be construed as of insidious intent. Nevertheless, BJP leader and former foreign minister Yashwant Sinha suggests that any such move from Washington must be resisted. "It must be made clear to the US that India will not accept any role on Kashmir from a third party."

Others feel that once Obama takes office, he will realise that Indians are sensitive on the Kashmir issue and won’t pursue it doggedly. "Obama is a realist and he will realise that no intrusive policy on Kashmir will work," says Mansingh.

But issues like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and outsourcing can strain bilateral ties. The growing opinion in New Delhi is that, post-nuclear deal, India can’t hold out on CTBT. "If all other countries, like China, Pakistan and the US, also sign and ratify the treaty, then India can also do so. This was made clear even during the Vajpayee government," Sinha told Outlook.

H-1B visas and outsourcing are other worrying issues for India, particularly as the Democrat president will have to initiate steps to ensure American jobs stay in the country. "Senator Obama has always voted against India on economic issues," says FICCI secretary-general Amit Mitra, but he is quick to add that as president, Obama is likely to take a holistic view of the growing Indo-US ties.

The IT industry, surprisingly, is upbeat about Obama. Subroto Bagchi, co-founder, MindTree Ltd, an IT consultancy firm, told Outlook, "Must we trivialise the momentous occasion of Obama’s election by counting the number of H-1B visas and fretting over what would happen to outsourcing? That very discussion is impoverished. Today, India’s IT industry is as coloured as Obama himself. The Indian IT industry is not a toddler. We do valuable work for the world and the world knows it. No US president can afford to sidestep that reality and burn the house to roast a pig. We need to focus on productivity, newer business models and innovation. Not H-1B visas." Perhaps it’s time for India to grow up.

By Pranay Sharma with Sugata Srinivasaraju