Early Trends Show INDIA Gaining in the Hindi Heartland, BJP Outrides Expectations in South

Trends show the INDIA alliance making inroads into BJP's Hindi heartland strongholds and the saffron party breaching opposition citadels in the South.

Abhik Bhattacharya

Updated on: 4 June 2024 11:53 am

Bharatiya Janata Party supporters watch the live telecast of proceedings of vote counting at their party office in Chennai, India, Tuesday, June 4, 2024. (AP Photo via Mahesh Kumar A.)

The early trends of the Lok Sabha election results have thrown a few surprises. After the first round of counting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was found to be trailing in his home turf Varanasi, whereas in the south, known as the bastion of the Congress, the BJP is doing well.

In Karnataka, the BJP is now leading in almost 18 seats. Interestingly, in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is leading in four seats. In Telangana, where the Congress recently formed the government, the BJP is seemingly going to have a good foothold.

While the south has sprung a surprise, the north—the Hindi heartland—is also showing an unusual trend. In the 2019 elections, out of the 225 seats in the north (10 states), the Congress couldn’t even touch the double-digit mark. As per the early trends in the present elections, the opposition INDIA alliance is outriding expectations in UP, Bihar and Haryana. In Bihar, the INDIA bloc is leading in 10 seats, whereas the neck-to-neck fight in Uttar Pradesh is showing up formidable leads for the Samajwadi Party P-Congress combine.

During the election campaign, SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav had said several times that the INDIA bloc would do well. In 2019, the SP-BSP alliance got 15 seats and the BJP got 62. The changing numbers have clearly shown that the BSP votes have declined and have shifted to the INDIA bloc.

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In Haryana, the performance of the INDIA bloc after the first few rounds shows that the Congress is leading in six seats. The politics of Haryana in the recent past was marred with the issues of wrestler’s protests and farmers’ agitation.

The politics of Bihar also has thrown a surprise to the political pundits as the INDIA bloc is leading in around 10 seats. In 2019, the BJP swept over the state with 39 out of 40 seats. The politics of the state became interesting as Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, suddenly took a U-turn and jumped the boat before the elections. Kumar was the one who was primarily the projected convenor of the INDIA bloc.

Against this backdrop, one can say that this election has been full of surprises. Not only has it debunked the exit polls predictions, it has also shown that the INDIA bloc is opening its account in the Hindi heartland and the BJP is about to enter the southern bastion of Congress and regional parties.