Haryana Assembly Election 2024: What Past Vote Shares Foretell

The saffron party is still reeling from the dismal Lok Sabha election performance in Haryana in which Congress significantly increased its vote base, mainly owing to anger against the BJP among the dominant Jat community on issues like the farmers’ agitation and the Agniveer scheme. Between the June results and the state elections, BJP did not get enough time to soothe this section and the Congress, aware of its edge, is expecting a spillover effect.

Apart from the BJP and Congress, major parties fighting Haryana polls this year include the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Azad Samaj Party, which could play a crucial role as allies in government formation.

For most of Haryana’s history, the politics have been governed by dynasties – the Lal trio, the Hooda-Birender Singh clans, Pandit Bhagwat Dayal Sharma clan and Rao-Yadav clans. However, this changed in 2014 when the BJP secured a majority by winning 47 seats and toppled the decade-old Congress government, which managed to secure only 15 seats. Despite not declaring a CM face beforehand, the BJP was riding high on the ‘Modi wave’ and became the strongest political force in the region. The wave lasted only five years.

Hints of an anti-incumbency factor against the BJP started becoming visible in the 2019 Assembly election despite a sweep in the Lok Sabha polls months before it. Although the party emerged as the single-largest party with 40 seats, it did not secure majority. Ultimately, BJP formed a post-poll alliance with the Dushyant Chautala-led JJP and seven Independent candidates to form government. Manohar Lal Khattar became the chief minister for a second term and Chautala his deputy.

The vote share for both BJP and Congress increased that year, compared to the previous poll year. In 2014, the BJP had secured 33.3 per cent vote share, which increased to 36.7 per cent in 2019. Congress secured 24.2 per cent vote share in 2014, whereas in 2019, it got 28.1 per cent. Moreover, BJP’s victory margin in 2019 was still higher than Congress.

The new entrant JJP, formed only in 2018, secured 10 seats and 14.9 per cent vote share in 2019 elections signifying a localised dominance, particularly in Jind, Kaithal and Hisar regions, which made it the kingmaker. However, earlier this year, as the BJP-JJP bonhomie fell apart, the latter grappled with a steep decline in political clout and desertion. On March 12, the BJP announced a split with Chautala’s party and lost the little Jat support it had garnered. Like a double-edged sword, this also injured BJP’s chances among the Jat community.

Meanwhile, Congress’ vote share gains in 2019 were focused in Ambala, Yamunagar and Panchkula districts in the northern region, and it is expected to further improve in the upcoming polls. This, however, has still not given Congress a clear edge. The Aam Aadmi Party, entering the Haryana battleground for the first time, is all set to fight alone, exposing the fissures within the INDIA bloc. Disagreements over seat-sharing have been recurring between the two parties since the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

At the beginning of September, Congress got a boost as Olympic wrestlers Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia, who were the face of last year’s protest against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and have supported the farmers on various occasions, joined the party. But without allies, will it be a big enough boost for Congress to regain the lost chair?

At this point, both BJP and Congress are looking at some gains and losses, signalling the possibility of a neck-and-neck battle. The key may once again be in the hands of the regional parties.