Ireland Vs England Preview, Nations League: Key Players To Watch Out For

Southgate quit his post in the wake of England's 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final of Euro 2024 in July.

That ended a hugely successful eight-year stint for Southgate when it came to turning around the fortunes of the Three Lions, and restoring England's pride in the national team.

Yet for all the promise and potential, England could not get over the line when it truly mattered, falling short in two Euros finals, and a World Cup semi-final.

England had endured a miserable Nations League campaign before their exploits in Germany, and in hindsight, it showed that perhaps Southgate's magic was wearing off.

Now in League B, having been relegated from League A, England's first match after Southgate sees them face an old rival, as former Ireland international Lee Carsley aims to prove his credentials to the Football Association (FA).

Having won last year's Under-21 Euros, Carsley will surely be hoping he can follow in Southgate's footsteps in transferring from the youth set up to the senior side.

Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key talking points ahead of Saturday's clash in Dublin.

What's expected?

It's always hard to fully gauge what a team will look like under a new manager, especially in international football. 

That being said, while we do not quite know what Carsley's England will look like, we can be sure that they are the favourites for this one, with Opta's supercomputer handing them a 70.4% win probability.

Ireland, on the other hand, have been given just a 13.2% win likelihood, while the threat of a draw is 16.5%.

This is England's first game without Southgate in charge since a 1-0 win over Slovakia in September 2016 in Sam Allardyce's one and only game.

Including caretakers, only four managers have lost their first game in charge of the Three Lions: Alf Ramsey (2-5 vs France in 1963), Howard Wilkinson (0-2 vs France in 1999), Peter Taylor (0-1 vs Italy in 2000) and Stuart Pearce (2-3 vs Netherlands at the 2012 Olympics when coaching Team GB).

It is fair to say Carsley, who played 40 times for Ireland between 1997 and 2008, has history on his side. Will he continue those strong records?

New blood

Carsley, as expected, freshened up his squad with some new faces. Angel Gomes, Morgan Gibbs-White, Tino Livramento and Noni Madueke all made the cut.

Gomes, Gibbs-White and Madueke made 50 appearances combined for Carsley in the U21s, so it is not a huge surprise to see the trio given a shot, while Livramento has usurped Kieran Trippier, who has now retired from international football, at Newcastle United this season.

At last year's U21 Euros, Carsley's team scored 11 goals in six games, outperforming their 8.5 expected goals (xG) and, despite not dominating possession, averaging 56.4%, they scored the most build-up goals at the tournament (seven) - a build-up goal is an open play sequence that features 10+ passes and ends in a goal.

Given England performed so poorly, relative to the quality at their disposal, in attack at Euro 2024, perhaps Carsley's approach can help get the best out of that star-studded frontline, albeit Phil Foden, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer have all withdrawn from the squad.

Indeed, England have scored just 13 goals in 11 games in 2024, having netted 26 in 10 games in 2023. Their 2024 average of 1.2 goals per game is their lowest in a year since 2000 (exactly one per game, 11 goals in 11 games), so Carsley has a relatively low bar to improve on.

What about the defence, though? Southgate was a pragmatic manager, and in fairness, England only allowed 7.3 xG against through their seven matches at Euro 2024.

However, they have shipped the opening goal in each of their last four matches, all in the knockout stages in Germany (W2 D1 L1). The Three Lions have not conceded the opener in five games in a row since between November 1953 and June 1954.

And going back to that U21 Euros, Carsley's side did not concede a single goal, albeit the xGA metric suggests they should have conceded at least seven.

While the fresh faces in England's squad will be looking to stake a claim, Jack Grealish has been handed a reprieve after missing out on Euro 2024. And, right at the top of the pitch, there is the experience and world-class finishing ability of Harry Kane, who is closing in on his 100th cap - should he play in Dublin, that will be appearance number 99 for his country.

Ireland's new era

It is not just Carsley that is making his bow in the dugout on Saturday. Heimir Hallgrimsson is Ireland's new boss, with the former Jamaica and Iceland coach having been appointed earlier in the summer.

Hallgrimsson has previous with England, of course. He was in joint charge of Iceland when they knocked Roy Hodgson's Three Lions out of Euro 2016.

The only manager to defeat England with two different nations is Bora Milutinovic, in 1985 with Mexico and in 1993 with the United States.

And what better way to start a new era than a big win over a big rival?

This is the first time Ireland will host England since a goalless draw in a friendly in June 2015. In a competitive match, it is the first time since a November 1990 European Championship qualifier, drawn 1-1 with Tony Cascarino cancelling out David Platt's opener for the Three Lions.

England also won their last meeting with Ireland in November 2020 – they have not won consecutive games against them since doing so with wins in 1980 and 1985.

Ireland last beat England in 1995, though the sides have only met each other three times since, with two draws and one win for England: that 3-0 triumph in 2020.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Republic of Ireland - Evan Ferguson

Ferguson could not quite get going last season after a bright start for Brighton, but he is still one of the Premier League's most exciting youngsters.

The striker is Ireland's big hope going forward and will be out to make his mark against one of the best teams in the world.

England - Harry Kane

Kane ranks 10th on the all-time list of England caps and has made 85 starts, playing 7,616 minutes, directly contributing to 83 goals (66 goals – an England record – and 17 assists). He averages 0.78 goals per 90, and 0.98 goal contributions per 90.

Indeed, Kane averages a goal every 115 minutes for his country, and he will surely be the key man for Carsley as the interim manager looks to capitalise on this audition.